Indian scientists use computer simulation models to guide pandemic management

  • Indian scientists use computer simulation models to guide pandemic management
  • Reference: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054775v1.full.pdf
  • As of now no vaccine has been approved for use against COVID19. Thus, to contain this pandemic non-medical measure in the form of lock down has been implemented to promote social distancing (SD). But the question remains would social distancing alone be useful to handle this lockdown? A team of scientists from Indian Institute of Chemical Biology, Purulia Government Medical College and Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences, Kerala used a computational modelling using R language to develop SEIQHRF(Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Quarantined-Hospitalised-Recovered-Fatal) model. The simulation was run on Kasaragod, the most affected district of Kerala. The results of the study show that only SD would delay the appearance of peak prevalence of COVID19 cases. Increasing the number of beds would not reduce fatalities. But increasing detection rates by atleast five times could reduce the number of cases to half. Therefore, scaling up of detection along with SD and increase in number of hospitals, together will help in control of COVID19 in India.
  • Summary by: Tanaya Roychowdhury, Graduate student at Indian Institute of Chemical Biology, India

Photo credit: Science in HD on Unsplash

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